The 2021 North Indian Ocean cyclone season is off to a strong start with Tropical Cyclone Tauktae in the Arabian Sea. The cyclone could hit India over the coast of Gujarat at the end of Monday or early Tuesday morning.
The season starts strong
Tropical Cyclone Tauktae launches the North Indian Ocean cyclone season. First system of the season and first serious threat to inhabited land. The phenomenon which evolves over Arabian Sea, currently runs along the coasts of Maharashtra at less than 100 km of distance. The cyclone has an intensity equivalent to a category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, generating gusts about 180 km/h. The system is heading north, under the effect of the ridge positioned east of the cyclone.
Intensity forecasts suggest further intensification due to very favorable environmental conditions. The sea surface temperature is very hot, the wind shear is low and the divergence reinforced by a strong polar side outflow. Human agencies (RSMC New Delhi and JTWC) agree on this scenario. Tauktae therefore has the potential to become a virulent cyclone over the next 24 hours.
Serious threat to gujarat
Over the next few hours, Tauktae is expected to move away from the Indian coast tracked Northwestward to North Northwestward. Despite everything, landfall over inhabited land seems more and more likely. The cyclone is expected to hit the coast of Gujarat at the end of Monday or early Tuesday morning. The point of impact is yet to be determined, but could be between Porbandar and Mahuva according to RSMC New Delhi.