The main global model forecast suggest a tropical storm formation in the first part of next week, in Northern Indian Ocean. The context is favorable for cyclonic activity in Bay of Bengal. An active Madden-Julian oscillation and Rossby wave, could favor development of low level circulation this Weekend, in the area of Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
IFS, GFS and NAVGEM agree to strengthen this low at the start of next week. Probabilistic data from the European center on April 29 at 0z, gives a probability of tropical storm formation of 30 to 40% from Tuesday. Note that the British Ukmo model persists with no cyclogenesis, which contributes to maintaining uncertainty about this possible future system.