Surigae became the first typhoon of the 2021 Northwest Pacific typhoon season. The tropical cyclone is still expected to reach a major intensity in the coming days.
First typhoon of the 2021 season
The 2nd system of this season is the first to reach typhoon stage. According to the latest trends, it could become a virulent and dangerous cyclone. Indeed, the environmental conditions are favorable for further intensification. The weakness of the shear and the expected improvement divergence are elements that should allow Surigae to become a strong tropical cyclone during this weekend.
Track forecasted by RSMC Tokyo
Latest, the center has passed through northern Palau. The typhoon will continue to track West-Northwestward, supported by the subtropical ridge. Thereafter, a weakness in this ridge should accentuate northward track, which could allow the Philippines to avoid a direct impact. However, a transit near the eastern coasts of the center of the archipelago between Sunday and Monday is not excluded. Caution should therefore be exercised, especially since Surigae would be a violent typhoon at this time.
A powerfull cyclone expected
Precisely, let's talk about the maximum intensity expected. With favorable environmental conditions mentioned above, Surigae has the potential to become a powerfull cyclone. According to the different intensity scenarios suggested by forecast guidance, the cyclone could reach the equivalent of a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Human agencies (CMRS Tokyo and JTWC) agree on this intensity scenario.
Note that it is during this weekend that Surigae should be at the peak of his strength. From next week, the system should start to weaken. At the time of its evolution towards Northward then Northeastward, Surigae will encounter less favorable conditions, with a divergence decrease and colder waters.