The 2nd system of this season is the first to reach typhoon stage. According to the latest trends, it could become a virulent and dangerous cyclone. Indeed, the environmental conditions are favorable for further intensification. The weakness of the shear and the expected improvement divergence are elements that should allow Surigae to become a strong tropical cyclone during this weekend.

Track forecasted by RSMC Tokyo
Latest, the center has passed through northern Palau. The typhoon will continue to track West-Northwestward, supported by the subtropical ridge. Thereafter, a weakness in this ridge should accentuate northward track, which could allow the Philippines to avoid a direct impact. However, a transit near the eastern coasts of the center of the archipelago between Sunday and Monday is not excluded. Caution should therefore be exercised, especially since Surigae would be a violent typhoon at this time.