December 23, 2019: 06 UTC - Cyclone activity could restart in the coming days in the Pacific Southwest. The main global models suggest the significant development of a low system in northwest Fiji during this week.
Increasing risk of cyclogenesis
- Meteo France New Caledonia -
It was in the Pacific that the 2019/2020 cyclone season for the southern hemisphere was launched with tropical cyclone Rita during November. After a period of calm, cyclone activity could restart with an increasing cyclogenesis signal in the Southwest Pacific. The main global models suggest the significant development of a low system in northwest Fiji during this week with timing differences between the euro IFS model slower than the American GFS model.
The possible future system could follow a southward or Southeastward track under the effect of the equatorial ridge. Everything will probably depend on the speed of cyclogenesis. In both simulations, the system could appraoch Fiji. However, these forecasts must be taken with prudence because we are talking about a system that does not yet exist.
Future storm Sarai?
Météo-France Nouvelle Calédonie estimates that the probability of a tropical storm forming over the next 3 to 7 days is high (> 50%) in northwest Fiji. This future system would evolve away from New Caledonia. But the situation will have to be followed closely in the coming days. Note that if the tropical storm statut is reached, the phenomenon will be named Sarai by the CMRS of Nadi.
PR
Related posts
In Cyclone
Different stages of the eye wall replacement cycle of Super typhoon Surigae
The violent Super Typhoon Surigae immediately exploded the competition, taking the provisional first place of the most 2021 intense cyclone. The system also performed a demonstration of an eye wall replacement cycle.
In Cyclone
Suriage becomes the first typhoon of the 2021 typhoon season
Surigae became the first typhoon of the 2021 Northwest Pacific typhoon season. The tropical cyclone is still expected to reach a major intensity in the coming days.
In Cyclone
The Philippines directly impacted by Typhoon Vongfong (Ambo)
May 14, 2020: 06 UTC
The 2020 Pacific Northwest typhoon season begins strong. Typhoon Vongfong, the first system of the season, hits the Philippines on the island of Samar and should cross the center and north of the archipelago.
In Cyclone
Vongfong Launches Typhoon Season 2020 Pacific Northwest
May 13, 2020: 14 UTC
Cyclone Vongfong launches the 2020 typhoon season in the Pacific Northwest. The system is a threat to the Philippines. He became the first typhoon of the season. the cyclone could strengthen before impacting the east of the archipelago.
Add a comment