November 6, 2019: 07 UTC - The North Indian Ocean continues to be active. India is encircled by the storm Maha which should end its race over Gujarat and by Ex-Matmo which is reinforced in the Bay of Bengal.
The Indian Ocean has been very active on its northern part for several days. Two systems are under surveillance on each side of the Indian peninsula. In the Arabian Sea, Maha is weakening under the effect of high vertical wind shear. The system is heading towards the west coast of India and is expected to be near the Kathiagara Peninsula at the tropical storm stage on the 7th. The remains of Maha are expected to landfall over southern Gujarat the following day. Given the weakness of the system at this time, its impact should be limited. It will still need to be careful due to rainfall it can generate and the strong sea.
On the other side of India, we have the Ex-Matmo, which originally came from the western Pacific. It is gradually strengthening since it emerged over Andaman Sea. The system that is now being followed by the RSMC is re-organizing and is expected to soon reach the tropical storm stage. Environmental conditions are marginally favorable due to high shear to the west of the system. The main global model is currently moderate regarding the future intensity of Ex-Matmo.
To be closely followed to avoid any unpleasant surprises
However, this system is to be watched closely because one is never safe from a surprise on the future intensity of a system in phase of cyclogenesis. We still remember FANI or HIKKA who beat the prognosis by becoming powerful phenomenon despite initial forecasts much more modest. Moreover, the RSMC considers that the tropical cyclone stage can be reached. Ex-Matmo is expected to follow a track that could bring it closer to the north-east coasts of India and Bangladesh.
Source: RSMC New Delhi