November 4, 2019: 07 UTC - Cyclone activity continues in the North Indian Ocean. In the Arabian Sea, Maha became the equivalent of a category 3 on the Saffir Simpson scale and threatens Gujarat, while Matmo from the Pacific re-emerged over the Andaman Sea.
Maha towards Gujarat
While Kyarr's remnants bring precipitation to Somalia, cyclone activity continues in the North Indian Ocean. In the Arabian Sea, Maha became a powerful cyclone equivalent to the intensity of a category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson scale according to the JTWC with an intensity of 100 kt. Lost in the middle of the Arabian Sea, Maha should turn back and head toward the coast of the Indian state of Gujarat. It could land in the night of November 6-7 between Diu and Porbandar.
The track forecasts are rather unfavorable for North West India. However, Maha is expected to weaken before landfall. Human agencies (RSMC New Delhi and JTWC) agree on this scenario. The system would be a tropical storm largely weakened at the time of impact. Increasing of vertical shear explains this significant weakening expected these next 72h.
Ex Matmo over Andaman Sea
At the eastern of North Indian Ocean, a system is under surveillance. Ex-Matmo, from Pacific Northwest, has re-emerged over Andaman Sea. The associated convective activity remain strong, while the low level center was located this morning between the Andaman and Nicobar Islands and the Myanmar coast. The main global models suggest a resurrection of Matmo as it sinks into the Bay of Bengal. It is too early to say more, but the situation will be closely watched for the North-East coasts of India, Bangladesh and Myanmar.
Source: RSMC // JTWC