Risk of cyclogenesis in the Southwest Pacific this week
December 23, 2019: 06 UTC - Cyclone activity could restart in the coming days in the Pacific Southwest. The main global models suggest the significant development of a low system in northwest Fiji during this week.
Increasing risk of cyclogenesis
- Meteo France New Caledonia -
It was in the Pacific that the 2019/2020 cyclone season for the southern hemisphere was launched with tropical cyclone Rita during November. After a period of calm, cyclone activity could restart with an increasing cyclogenesis signal in the Southwest Pacific. The main global models suggest the significant development of a low system in northwest Fiji during this week with timing differences between the euro IFS model slower than the American GFS model.
The possible future system could follow a southward or Southeastward track under the effect of the equatorial ridge. Everything will probably depend on the speed of cyclogenesis. In both simulations, the system could appraoch Fiji. However, these forecasts must be taken with prudence because we are talking about a system that does not yet exist.
Future storm Sarai?
Météo-France Nouvelle Calédonie estimates that the probability of a tropical storm forming over the next 3 to 7 days is high (> 50%) in northwest Fiji. This future system would evolve away from New Caledonia. But the situation will have to be followed closely in the coming days. Note that if the tropical storm statut is reached, the phenomenon will be named Sarai by the CMRS of Nadi.