Will the northern hemisphere of the Indian Ocean wake up? An active Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) makes the context favorable to cyclogenesis on the northern part of the Indian Ocean. In response, global models show a cyclogenesis signals in the Bay of Bengal, between this Weekend and the beginning of next week.
For the moment, the European probabilistic data attributes a low risk (10 to 30%) for the next 5 days, which contrasts with the GFS model who envisages significant faster development. Note that the RMSC New Delhi, in its perspective of cyclogenesis dated April 23, suggests for the week of May 1 to 7, a high probability (68 to 100%) of cyclogenesis in the Bay of Bengal.