Conditions favorable for cyclogenesis in the North Indian Ocean
October 23, 2019: 08 UTC - Cyclonic activity could to wake up in the North Indian Ocean in this coming days. The global models suggest a cyclogenesis over the Arabian Sea. It's not exclude that cyclonic storm stage could be reach during the next 48 to 72 hours.
Suspect area 97A
The Indian Ocean is quiet since cyclone Hikaa that evolved in Arabian Sea during September. This pause could end in the next few days. Context is becoming favorable in the Indian Ocean for a resurgence of cyclonic activity. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is in phase 2, which means that an active phase has begun to cross Indian Ocean. As a reminder, the MJO is known to be favorable to cyclogenesis.
The convective activity is strong in the Indian Ocean, due to MJO and strong positive Indian Ocean dipole phase. An suspect area numbered 97A over Arabian Sea is under surveillance. Indeed, the global models suggest a cyclogenesis from this suspect area. ASCAT data shows a low level circulation centered in the the north-west of Lakshadweep.
Track eastward toward Indian West Coast
Environment appear favorable for further development with low to moderate shear, strong divergence and warm sea surface temperature between 29 and 30° C. However, 97A should approach the west coast of India, which makes uncertain its future evolution. The proximity of the land could hinder its development.
The situation will be closely monitored for the coastal regions of the Indian states of Karnataka, Maharashtra and Gujarat. The system could skirt these areas between Friday and Monday. It's not exclude that cyclonic storm stage could be reach during the next 48 to 72 hours. The next name on the cyclone list is Kyarr, name proposed by Myanmar.