No cyclone activity during november and december 2016 in SWIO

Southwest indian ocean cyclone season 2016/2017 is atypical. The cyclonic basin has been silent since October and the subtropical depression Bransby. The season 2016/2017 struggles to get going and enters the club closed seasons without systems in November and December.

We must go back to the 2000/2001 cyclone season to find a similar situation

In the southwest basin of the Indian Ocean, cyclone activity generally begins in November. Of course, systems sometimes form early in the winter. But overall, the last two months of the year are synonymous with the launch of cyclonic activity in this basin. This 2016/2017 season is particularly atypical. First of all, we had a strong Tropical Storm in July, provoking a time worthy of the rainy season on the big Mascarenes in the middle of winter. Then, during the month of October, a remarkable subtropical depression generating gusts of the order of 130 km/h evolved in the south of Madagascar. No systems baptized in novembre and december. We must go back to the 2000/2001 cyclone season to find a similar situation. At that time it was the intense cyclone ANDO which put an end to the mutism of the southwestern basin at the beginning of January 2001.

5 seasons in this atypical situation

With the help of the online archive of Météo-France Océan Indien and the site firinga.com, we had fun inventorying all the seasons without a system baptized during the months of November and December during the last 30 years Season 1985/86 to 2015/2016). It turns out that one counts 5 seasons in this atypical situation (1986 / 1987-1992 / 1993-1997 / 1998-1998 / 1999-2000 / 2001). All these seasons (except the 1992/1993 season) have in common the fact that they had, in the end, a cyclonic activity lower than the seasonal normal, which is about nine systems baptized on average per season. The cyclone season 2016/2017 that we live seems to follow the same way. Moreover, the environmental conditions prevailing in the southwest basin do not go in the direction of contradicting this observation.

What will happen now?

This first part of the season therefore conforms to the forecast of Météo France Océan Indien. What will be the second part, difficult to say. Will we see a catch-up of activity during the heart of the season or a continuation of a globally weak activity? The future will tell. In the meantime, do not fall into the trap of decreasing your vigilance, because the less active seasons have not necessarily been quite rest.

PR

source : Météo France Océan Indien / firinga.com

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